After 4 years of strange behavior, flu is settling back into its old ways this season.

That means that flu is in full swing now and is likely to remain active across Northern California well into February.  Most of those who have been hospitalized for flu didn’t get a flu vaccination, said Connie Park, MD, clinical flu lead for Kaiser Permanente in Northern California.

Dr. Park shares thoughts on the current flu season’s patterns, lagging vaccination rates, and whether it’s too late to get vaccinated.

How would you characterize flu in Northern California?

This region is being hit hard right now. It’s still heating up, so we don’t know exactly what it will look like, but what we can say is that it’s returning to a typical pattern that we had before the pandemic. A typical pattern is that flu rates rise at the end of December or early January, and peak in early February. 

It’s hard to say how severe this season will end up being. The southern hemisphere ended up having a moderate season with pockets of severe disease found in different countries.

Interim data on flu vaccine efficacy demonstrates 35% vaccine effectiveness, which is on the lower end of an expected efficacy range. Even if the vaccine is not as effective, it will have an impact on how severe the flu season will be.

In recent seasons, RSV and COVID-19 were prominent. What can you say about them this year?

RSV is in the background. People are a lot more aware of it than they were before, and more people are getting tested and diagnosed with the infection. There’s protection for RSV now, which has helped lower the spread and harm. A recently published study by the Division of Research showed our program with a high uptake of new maternal vaccine and preventive treatment last season.

COVID-19 is not as prominent as it has been in the previous 4 winters. However, infections appear to be increasing based on what we see in the wastewater.

How are flu vaccinations?

The vaccine landscape remains bleak. For the third straight year, it is still trending down.

This flu season, about a third of our members have received a flu vaccine, which is recommended annually for everyone 6 months and older. Before this downward trend, at least 50% would get vaccinated. Across the board, vaccination is down, but especially among those ages 18 to 49. Seniors continue to get flu vaccines at a good rate.

There are a lot of reasons for this dip. Vaccine fatigue is a factor. We have more vaccines now, such as ones for RSV and COVID-19. As a medical community, we are making a lot of requests and people are confused. They don’t know which ones to prioritize. Young people also don’t know how effective they are and if the vaccines will help them.

Is it too late to get vaccinated?

It’s still worth getting vaccinated now. We don’t know when flu will peak or when it will end. We can still have flu circulating until spring. If someone is interested in vaccination, they do need to keep in mind that the vaccine will take two weeks to become fully effective. (View vaccine locations across Kaiser Permanente in Northern California.)

Vaccination is considered the best prevention tool to prevent infection and to stop the spread of illness to loved ones, especially to those at higher risk for serious illness.

We recommend vaccination, even when the vaccines effectiveness is not as high. Even if you happen to get sick even after being vaccinated, symptoms may be milder.

Another reason: We are noticing this year that nearly every patient in the ICU for the flu didn’t get vaccinated.

Any last thoughts?

We might be in for a bumpy ride right now, so people should mask, practice good hygiene, like washing hands and staying home if sick. These are very sound pieces of preventive measures we took during the pandemic and should be practiced any time we are sick. People should test for flu and COVID-19 because there are treatments that can prevent COVID-19 and flu from worsening.